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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">102</journal-id>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="index">urn:lsid:arphahub.com:pub:73abe0ce-d97c-5d7c-bee5-b8e6e6fe6a17</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title xml:lang="en">ARPHA Preprints</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title xml:lang="en">preprints</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Pensoft Publishers</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3897/arphapreprints.e76705</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">76705</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="biological_taxon">
          <subject>Plantae</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="scientific_subject">
          <subject>Biological Invasions</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="geographical_area">
          <subject>Florida</subject>
          <subject>World</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Scanning the horizon for invasive plant threats to Florida, USA</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group content-type="authors">
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Kendig</surname>
            <given-names>Amy</given-names>
          </name>
          <email xlink:type="simple">aekendig@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Canavan</surname>
            <given-names>Susan</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Anderson</surname>
            <given-names>Patti</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Flory</surname>
            <given-names>Stephen</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Gettys</surname>
            <given-names>Lyn</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Gordon</surname>
            <given-names>Doria</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A5">5</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Iannone III</surname>
            <given-names>Basil</given-names>
          </name>
          <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2477-7573</uri>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Kunzer</surname>
            <given-names>John</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A6">6</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Petri</surname>
            <given-names>Tabitha</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Pfingsten</surname>
            <given-names>Ian</given-names>
          </name>
          <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9456-9905</uri>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A7">7</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name name-style="western">
            <surname>Lieurance</surname>
            <given-names>Deah</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="A1">
        <label>1</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>University of Florida</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Gainesville, FL</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A2">
        <label>2</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">Czech Academy of Sciences, Průhonice, Czech Republic</addr-line>
        <institution>Czech Academy of Sciences</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Průhonice</addr-line>
        <country>Czech Republic</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A3">
        <label>3</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Gainesville, FL, United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Gainesville, FL</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A4">
        <label>4</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">University of Florida, Davie, FL, United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>University of Florida</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Davie, FL</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A5">
        <label>5</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>Environmental Defense Fund</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Washington, D.C.</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A6">
        <label>6</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Tallahassee, FL, United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Tallahassee, FL</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="A7">
        <label>7</label>
        <addr-line content-type="verbatim">U.S. Geological Survey, Gainesville, FL, United States of America</addr-line>
        <institution>U.S. Geological Survey</institution>
        <addr-line content-type="city">Gainesville, FL</addr-line>
        <country>United States of America</country>
      </aff>
      <author-notes>
        <fn fn-type="corresp">
          <p>Corresponding author: Amy Kendig (<email xlink:type="simple">aekendig@gmail.com</email>).</p>
        </fn>
        <fn fn-type="edited-by">
          <p>Academic editor: </p>
        </fn>
      </author-notes>
      <pub-date pub-type="collection">
        <year>2021</year>
      </pub-date>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>18</day>
        <month>10</month>
        <year>2021</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <uri content-type="arpha" xlink:href="http://openbiodiv.net/524366FF-0AD1-5302-A56C-B5CC92A1FE2B">524366FF-0AD1-5302-A56C-B5CC92A1FE2B</uri>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received">
          <day>18</day>
          <month>10</month>
          <year>2021</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="accepted">
          <day>18</day>
          <month>10</month>
          <year>2021</year>
        </date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Amy Kendig, Susan Canavan, Patti Anderson, Stephen Flory, Lyn Gettys, Doria Gordon, Basil Iannone III, John Kunzer, Tabitha Petri, Ian Pfingsten, Deah Lieurance</copyright-statement>
        <license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple">
          <license-p>This is an open access preprint distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <label>Abstract</label>
        <p dir="ltr">
          <span style="font-weight:normal;" id="docs-internal-guid-b5cc89a3-7fff-e7b6-7c6e-245e38e7a4e7">Early detection and eradication of invasive plants are more cost-effective than managing well-established invasive plant populations and their impacts. However, there is high uncertainty around which taxa are likely to become invasive in a given area. Horizon scanning, which pairs rapid risk assessment with consensus building among experts, can help identify invasion threats. We performed a horizon scan of potential invasive plant threats to Florida, USA—a state with a high influx of introduced species, conditions that are favorable for plant establishment, and a history of negative impacts from invasive plants. We began with a list of 2128 non-native plant species and subspecies that are crop pests or invasive somewhere in the world and used publicly available data to prioritize 100 taxa for rapid risk assessment. We derived overall invasion risk scores by evaluating the likelihood and certainty of each of the 100 taxa arriving, establishing, and having an impact in Florida. Through the rapid risk assessments and a consensus-building discussion, we identified six plant taxa with high overall risk scores ranging from 75 to 100 out of a possible 125. The six taxa are globally distributed, easily transported to new areas, found in regions with climates similar to Florida’s, and can impact native plant communities, human health, or agriculture. We recommend more thorough risk assessments for each of these six species and, if appropriate, policy and management actions to limit invasive plant introduction and establishment in Florida. </span>
        </p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
