This deliverable report elaborates on the development and results of a set of policy scenarios that represent the outcomes of Task 2.4. After clarifying the objective of the deliverable, key features of the DART-BIO model are explained, followed by a definition of two biofuel scenarios in which the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and in addition global biofuel policies are implemented. Further, two specifications of international climate policies are defined and their implementation explained. In the result section, the impacts of these policies on the EU’s agricultural markets and land-use change are illustrated. The results show that with the RED including a ban on palm-oil based biodiesel in place, EU’s rapeseed production and therewith also land used to cultivate rapeseed rises, while also imports of other vegetable oils increase. Land-use change outside the EU is limited. Adding biofuel policies in non-EU regions causes global land use-change towards more cropland used for biofuel feedstock (e.g. soybeans, palm fruit) at the expense of pasture land and crops not used for biofuel production. When implementing climate policies, the conversion of pasture land on the global average is reduced. Depending on the specification of climate policies (having a CO2 or all GHG emission reduction target), land-use change is affected differently. When only considering CO2 emissions, more biofuels and feedstock are imported into the EU, resulting in less area (-3 percentage points) devoted to rapeseed production compared to a situation with biofuel policies but no climate policy. Adding all GHG emissions to the reduction targets leads to a reduction of 1 percentage point in rapeseed areas in the EU since emission pricing reduces demand for livestock production. The results can serve as input into Agent-Based Modelling in case studies across the EU, changing land-use patterns and opportunity costs of participation in agri-environmental schemes.

policy, renewable energy, agriculture, environment, land-use