ARPHA Preprints, doi: 10.3897/arphapreprints.e120132
Economic costs of forest pest invasions are under-sampled worldwide but high and increasing outside Europe and North America
expand article infoGeoffrey M. Williams
‡ United States Department of Agriculture, Lansing, United States of America
Open Access
Abstract

Forest pest invasions threaten biodiversity, folkways, and ecosystems. However, an assessment of their costs, which is possible globally using the InvaCost database, is needed to grab the attention of policymakers and decision-makers. Overall costs, damage costs, and management costs for invasive fungi, arthropods, and nematodes were extracted from the InvaCost database, standardized, estimated, and modeled over time. Only costs estimated prior to 2010 were considered due to a lag in reporting, but they could be used to estimate current costs. The overall lack of data in the InvaCost database for forest pest invasions indicated underestimation and under-sampling of their costs. Nonetheless, some key differences in trends were apparent, including in annual costs in 2025 and rate of increase between Europe (US $347M + 1% per year) and North America (1.8B + 2% per year), which were much smaller and increasing more slowly than the rest of the world (i.e., Asia and Global South; 506M + 13% per year). There was another key mismatch in the ratio of cumulative costs of damage vs. management from 1980-2010 in Asia and the Global South (10B vs. 29M), and to a less extent, North America (18 vs. 2.6B) compared to Europe, where investment in management was comparable to costs of damage (12 vs. 12B). Annual global costs are estimated to increase to US $50B by 2050, but with a wide range of uncertainty. The uncertainty of current and future costs of invasive forest pathogens highlights the uncertainty-visibility tradeoff between proactive and reactive approaches to forest pest invasions and provides rationale for increased investment in and integration of research, monitoring, and management.

Keywords
exotic, introduced, fungus, native, natural, pathogen, policy, socioeconomic