Mariia Smirnova‡Corresponding author: Mariia Smirnova ( mariaus@bk.ru ) © Mariia Smirnova. This is an open access preprint distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Citation:
Smirnova M (2024) Population Estimates of the Second Generation of Migrants in Russia and Western Countries. ARPHA Preprints. https://doi.org/10.3897/arphapreprints.e136146 |  |
The article examines the issue of the statistical classification of a second generation of migrants as a category of population statistics. The descendants of migrants represent a substantial proportion of the population in numerous countries, yet they are simultaneously a demographic group facing considerable socio-economic challenges. The introduction of this category into national statistical systems enables the direct estimation of the number of second-generation migrant contingents in a number of Western countries.
The study presents a critical analysis of the existing Russian sources of demographic data, which lack the necessary specialized classifications for the direct identification of second-generation migrants, thereby making it challenging to ascertain their numbers with a reasonable degree of accuracy. As an alternative approach, this paper employs cohort-component analysis to model the number of second-generation migrants born in Russia between 2001 and 2020. The model results indicate that the size of this group is approximately 1 million individuals. The findings underscore the necessity for enhancements to existing statistical methodologies in Russia.
This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University).