Insights into potential policy outcomes may be biased if based on an unrepresentative selection of case study information. As case studies are a central element of the BESTMAP project, evaluating their representativeness in the wider EU context is one of the major tasks of WP5 - Upscaling. In this Deliverable, we first briefly describe the principles of meta-models of ecosystem services and biodiversity that were developed as part of Task 5.2 to upscale predictions of ecosystem services beyond case studies. Second, we report on the development of a distance metric used to determine case study representativeness, i.e. the degree of similarity in conditions between BESTMAP case studies and NUTS3 regions across Europe. Third, we describe the transferability diagrams that we used to obtain the relationship between the predictive power of the meta-models and the distance metric, which were then used to determine the threshold within the distance metric (similarity of conditions) that corresponds to a model prediction that we considered reliable (R 2>0.5 ). Fourth, for each ecosystem service and biodiversity, we present a series of transferability maps based on the set threshold to identify the transferability potential of BESTMAP models to NUTS3 regions across Europe. Finally, we discuss the limitations and challenges of our approach used to determine case study representativeness and the transferability potential of ecosystem service models.

biodiversity, ecosystem services, policy